India's economy continues to be robust, but downside risks such as rising crude oil prices, adverse weather conditions, and the global banking crisis outweigh the upside potential in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the current financial year (FY24), the finance ministry said on Tuesday in its Monthly Economic Review for March. "We reiterate that downside risks to our official forecast of 6.5 per cent for real GDP growth in FY24 dominate upside risks," the review said. "Opec's surprise production cut has seen oil prices rise in April, off their lows of low-seventies per barrel in March.
With sales of cooling products turning out dismal this summer due to unseasonal rains, the stocks of related companies are now off their March highs. Shares of fan and air conditioner makers such as Voltas, Symphony, Orient Electric, Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning and Crompton Greaves are down 5-23 per cent since March when the summer season saw a firm onset. In comparison, the BSE Sensex index is up 10 per cent.
Target prices around Rs 400 suggest a significant upside.
The previous two sessions have seen benchmark indices, the BSE Sensex and Nifty presenting signs of fatigue, reaching closer to its all-time highs level. Both indices are down approximately 1 per cent from recent highs and 2 per cent away from reaching a new peak. This has led to confusion on the street about its ability to reach another milestone. The present bullish trend in the leading indices; which has displayed smart recovery since late March this year, remains intact as the market breadth continues to stay elevated.
India appears poised to sustain its growth in a more durable way than before with the economy carrying the momentum from FY23 into the current fiscal year, the Annual Economic Review for 2022-23 released by the finance ministry on Thursday said. However, the report cautioned that escalation of geopolitical stress, enhanced volatility in global financial systems, sharp price correction in global stock markets, a high magnitude of El-Nino impact, and modest trade activity and FDI inflows, are factors that could constrain the pace of growth. "Should these developments deepen and dampen growth in the subsequent quarters, the external sector may challenge India's growth outlook for FY24," the finance ministry said.
Akshay Kumar looks cool in that trippy get-up and adds his charisma to the film that is otherwise a lot of verbiage, observes Deepa Gahlot.
In the April-June quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), growth in sales of FSN E-Commerce Ventures (the parent company of Nykaa) decelerated to 24 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), and 9 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), compared with 34 per cent in the previous quarter, due to a decline in the beauty & personal care (BPC) and fashion division's gross merchandise value (GMV). But Nykaa claimed it gained market share in both divisions. The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margin of 5.2 per cent expanded 120 basis points (bps) from a year earlier.
IDFC First Bank delivered good results in the first quarter of this financial year (Q1FY24), but some analysts are concerned the bank is fully-valued. So, there has been profit-booking after a price rise. Growth went side-by-side with a focus on cutting interest costs and exposure to high non-performing infrastructure loans. The mortgage book is 28 per cent, of which 24 per cent is home loans and loans against property.
Analysts remain selective on cement stocks amid the likely government's capex push ahead of the scheduled general elections in May 2024. While UBS has initiated coverage on the Indian cement sector with an anti-consensus negative view and suggests investors sell select cement stocks on a rally, those at Nomura remain selectively bullish on the sector and prefer companies with large brownfield optionality and multi-region presence. In the near-term, UBS expects strong earnings of cement companies in the next two quarters to be driven by robust demand and margin tailwinds, but suggests any sharp uptick in stock prices could offer a good opportunity for booking profits in the related counters.
Private life insurers are expected to deliver decent growth in the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) on the back of stronger group business performance and easing supply-side constraints on individual protection. Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), though, is likely to see a decline. Healthy 12 per cent year-on-year (YoY) retail annual premium equivalent (APE) growth for private players, coupled with 11 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in LIC, will pull retail APE growth to a mere 3 per cent YoY in June 2023.
After topping it for two consecutive years, Gujarat slipped three places on the NITI Aayog's Export Preparedness Index (EPI) for 2022, as Tamil Nadu emerged as the most export-ready state, the central think tank said in its report released on Monday. In a continuing trend, coastal states were found to have the most robust export infrastructure, which officials attributed to the integration of maritime trade into the core of their economies. Maharashtra and Karnataka retained their positions -- second and third, respectively; Haryana was ranked first among landlocked states and fifth overall.
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
The headline for corporate profit growth has been very encouraging in the July-September quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), with the combined net profit of listed companies up by 38 per cent year-on-year. However, the earnings distribution has been very lopsided, with most of the growth coming from public-sector oil-marketing companies (OMCs), banks, non-bank lenders, automobile (auto) companies, and cement producers. By comparison, companies from information technology services, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), retail, and consumer durables were disappointed, experiencing a sharp slowdown in net sales growth and a relatively muted increase in reported net profit.
Gold, the safest haven amid the ongoing uncertainty, also emerged as one of the most lucrative investment options in financial year 2022-23 with an impressive return of 16.1 per cent in rupee terms, and 2.3 per cent returns in dollars. And, had it not been for the very high inflow of smuggled gold and the huge discount prevailing in the market due to high prices, the returns in gold would have been much higher, analysts said. The precious metal has consistently been delivering positive returns in India since 2016.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status-quo on the key interest rates for the third time in a row in its upcoming bi-monthly policy review despite the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hiking benchmark rates, as domestic inflation is within the RBI's comfort zone, say experts. The borrowing cost which started rising in May last year has stabilised with RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February when it was raised from 6.25 per cent. In the previous two bi-monthly policy reviews in April and June the benchmark rate was retained.
Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan on Tuesday said it is too premature to think that India will replace China when it comes to influencing global economic growth. However, the situation may change going forward as India is already the world's fifth largest economy, it is growing and has the potential to keep expanding. At a World Economic Forum (WEF) press briefing on the recently released Chief Economists Outlook that saw majority of them expecting a global recession in 2023, Rajan said any recovery in the Chinese economy would definitely boost the global growth prospects.
The stock of Colgate-Palmolive (India) surged after the company delivered a better than expected operating performance for the March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) recently. The stock, however, has given up most of these gains over the last one week as the Street awaits recovery in the core toothpaste segment and sustained recovery in market share. The country's largest listed oral care company posted a gross margin expansion of 100 basis points (bps) on a sequential basis to 66.9 per cent, led by pricing and efficient sourcing.
Stocks of gold jewellery retailers have been able to retain their sheen in 2023 despite volatile gold prices. Kalyan Jewellers, Titan, PC Jewellers, Thangamayil Jewellery, and Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri (TBZ) have rallied 21-72 per cent so far since April as compared to a 13 per cent gain in the benchmark Sensex index. The rally gained steam on the back of gold's 6 per cen
Tata Power declared encouraging results for the April-June quarter (Q1) of the 2023-23 financial year (FY24). The firm's revenue rose 5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 15,210 crore. It was driven by higher sales to distribution companies (discoms) and capacity addition in renewables. Company's adjusted profit after tax (PAT) rose 3 per cent to Rs 906 crore with reported PAT at Rs 1,100 crore on a one-time gain of Rs 235 crore.
India's total value of defence production breached Rs 1 trillion-mark in the fiscal year 2022-23 (FY23), up 12 per cent year-on-year (YoY). At the bourses, this has been well reflected in related-stocks from the sector as they gained considerable ground during this period. Shares of Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, MTAR Technologies, Bharat Electronics (BEL), and Bharat Dynamics (BDL) have skyrocketed up to 160 per cent in a year, as against a 14 per cent jump in the S&P BSE Sensex.
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Walmart, the world's largest retailer, has paid $1.4 billion to buy out US-based Tiger Global's investment in e-commerce firm Flipkart, according to sources. The transaction puts Flipkart's valuation at $35 billion, against nearly $38 billion in 2021 when it raised funds from Japan's SoftBank, Walmart, and other investors. Tiger Global, Flipkart co-founder Binny Bansal, and Accel now have all fully exited the e-commerce firm by selling their stake to Walmart.
The final of the Women's National Cricket League (WNCL) saw a thrilling finish as five wickets fell in the final over the match.
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10 non-bank and non-finance stocks from the BSE500 Index universe that offer an optimal blend of low valuation, reasonably robust revenue and earnings growth in recent quarters, a strong balance sheet, and most importantly, positive cash flow from their operations.
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
The impending merger between Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) with HDFC Bank may create challenges for large-cap fund managers, most of whom are already grappling to match the returns generated by their benchmarks. The combined weight following the merger in the benchmark Sensex and Nifty 50 indices is likely to be much higher than permissible limits for active mutual fund (MF) schemes. This could have a bearing on the performance of large-cap funds if HDFC Bank shares outperform the markets, as the schemes will be forced to remain underweight on the stock to adhere to the single-stock cap.
Banks enjoyed an expansion in Net Interest Margins (or NIMs) as well as in credit demand through the 2022-23 financial year (FY23). The credit expansion was because economic growth continued to recover from the Covid-19 years, and indeed, second half GDP growth surprised on the upside. The NIM expansion was because banks raised lending rates immediately (in many cases automatically due to floaters) as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked policy rates, and only started raising deposit rates late into the fiscal.
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Reliance Industries may report a muted performance for the April-June quarter of FY24, with most brokerages expecting it to have witnessed a year-on-year (YoY) and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) contraction in revenue and net profit during the period because of a poor showing by its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division. The O2C division, which includes refining and petrochemical businesses, accounts for a little over half of RIL's revenue and profit. A muted showing by RIL in the first quarter of 2023-24 may weigh on the overall corporate earnings, as well as the equity markets.
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday upped inflation projection for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the upside risk to inflation persists and the recent spike in tomato prices would fuel food inflation. Also, high global crude oil prices would add to the upside pressure on inflation. The upward revision in inflation projection comes as domestic retail inflation has remained above RBI's comfort level of 6 per cent for four months in a row, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine war which has impacted the prices of commodities across the globe.
The British Formula One Grand Prix was halted and re-started on Sunday after a multi-car opening-lap collision left Chinese driver Guanyu Zhou's Alfa Romeo wedged on its side between the tyre barrier and catch fence.
'In the long run, I don't foresee major ramifications [about Trudeau's allegations].' 'There's just enough hypocrisy among Western nations for India to douse the outrage.'
ITC's results for the January-March quarter (Q4) were strong, with robust growth in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) segment and a good performance in hospitality. The tobacco division's performance was on expected lines, with double-digit volume growth, helped by reclaiming of market share from the smuggled trade. There was 60 per cent growth in non-cigarette earnings before interest and tax (Ebit), despite a relatively weak performance in paperboards.
England's latest version of cricket is set for its biggest test as they face world champions Australia in a bid to reclaim the Ashes.
The stock of two wheeler maker Eicher Motors was the highest gainer among BSE 100 stocks, rising 6.6 per cent in trade on Friday. The gains came on the back of better than expected performance in the March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) and earnings upgrades by brokerages. Standalone revenues (Royal Enfield) were up 19.9 per cent year-on-year (YoY), led by an 18 per cent growth in volumes and a marginal uptick in realisations.
Fund managers are withdrawing after a two-year long run in public sector bank (PSB) stocks. Domestic mutual funds (MFs) were net sellers of PSB stocks for the first time in nine quarters, offloading shares worth Rs 1,800 crore in the March quarter, said a report by ICICI Securities. In the previous eight quarters, fund houses had invested more than Rs 10,000 in PSBs amid deep discounts in valuation vis--vis their private sector peers.
'Like all long-term bull markets, the Indian stock market will continue to climb the proverbial wall of worry.'
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